THE PEOPLE WHO CARE MOST – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:   They are the people who often decide elections, the people who actually turn up because they care the most.  And this year those people appear to lean Republican.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Republican voters are far more gung ho to vote in the fall presidential election than Democrats, a sign that two terms of Democratic ownership of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. may be at an end.

Longtime GOP strategist and pollster Ed Goeas told Secrets that the eagerness for Election Day is driven by one thing: Republicans want President Obama and his supporters out of the White House.

A new survey his company, the Tarrance Group, conducted for the centrist Republican Ripon Society uncovered an 11-point "intensity" gap among white Republicans and white Democrats.

"We had in 2010 a nine-point advantage on intensity. Going into 2014 we had a seven-point advantage on intensity, meaning our voters are more intense about voting. Right now we have an 11-point advantage," he said. "I've never seen a double-digit advantage in terms of intensity to vote."

In 2010, Republicans took control of the House. In 2014, they took over the Senate.

"Why is it 11? It's intensity toward the president," he explained.

A deeper plunge into the numbers, Goeas said, is even more remarkable.

For example, Republican women, who typically don't express voting eagerness in levels as high as men, are equal for the first time, at 89 percent, he said. What's more, on the issue of intensity, they are just three points back.

And...

Among African-Americans, for example, he found that 22 percent were voting Republican or undecided. Among Hispanics, 45 percent are already backing the GOP or are undecided.

COMMENT:  Makes me smile, but we should caution that this is only one poll.  As elections approach, many voters tend to go back home politically.  It will be a bitter fight for the presidency, and I would not take anything for granted.  We don't even know who the nominees will be.

February 1, 2016